ToO Fantasy Football: 2021 League Thread

Post by **bookworm** » Thu Sep 16, 2021 11:18 pm

There's also an extra week to work with this year.

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:58 pm

Oh, right! I completely forgot about the extra week's impact on fantasy football.

bookworm, I'm looking forward to your recap of our matchup this weekend.

Post by **bookworm** » Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:38 pm

Week 2:

Lost again, and this one does sting a bit.

I once again put together a solid lineup. Two low scores but one was due to an injury so only had one true poor performance and that was only because the game flow didn't allow for my player to be utilized at all, yet even so he could have still had a touchdown which would have salvaged his stats, but the goal line carry was inexplicably vultured by another player to my immense frustration. It is important to note though that even though that would have normalized his individual score for the week, it would not have changed the outcome of the overall matchup with AE. Nor would any other combination of roster moves.

So again this week my loss was not the result of any mistake or mismanagement, I did everything right, the opponent simply had a better day. Even acknowledging that this one does carry great disappointment though, for the fact that three of AE's players posted scores of 2, 1, and -1. It should not be possible to win your matchup when that happens. But he had an all time monster RB score which amazingly covered for all those shortcomings. And he was in such a hole cover is all it did, normally a score like that would have locked away a win, even if it had to first pad out a couple low scores before adding on to your total, but he was in such a deficit that even with that huge number it only brought him back even with expected performance. Going into Sunday Night Football we were back where the week had started, projected to be in a very close finish with me sneaking out on top. It all came down to how that last game went, and with the specific players involved on each side how things played out just had no way to get me the win.

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:47 pm

^ Accurate and well thought-out analysis.

(Although, the box score says you went up against Eugene.

)

Post by **bookworm** » Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:22 pm

Fixed, thanks.

When the Sunday Night game started out with two turnovers by your QB it seemed like I might be able to barely hold on, but once the Ravens turned things around the game circumstances were completely against me. Chiefs stopped running the ball so I was getting nothing further there, and I couldn't even eke out a few more points from my kicker because the Ravens started going for two after their scores, which were all adding points for Jackson so it wouldn't have mattered anyway.

E II · Post by **E II** » Mon Sep 27, 2021 11:15 pm

Well, i cant say that went quite as planned

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Tue Sep 28, 2021 4:04 pm

But at least you put a spring in bookworm's step, E II.

Post by **bookworm** » Thu Sep 30, 2021 5:40 pm

Week 3:

First win.

An easy victory, but in full disclosure one of Eugene's players was a scratch so the score would have been closer if he had gotten him switched out. It wouldn't have changed the outcome though.

There has been quite a bit of variance from week to week so far in where my points are coming from, but I feel like performances are beginning to stabilize. I prefer to put together a roster that spreads points throughout most of the positions with reliable consistency, rather than having a player or two that can put up big numbers on their own while the rest of the lineup does kind of whatever. I think I'm pretty close to having the pieces that can do that, I just need to fine tune the arrangement of them in our virtual games as they settle into their places in the real ones.

Knight Fisher · Post by **Knight Fisher** » Mon Oct 25, 2021 9:19 pm

I was watching the game with a buddy. He needed Kamara to get 20 points to win. Happened in the first half. I needed 20 yards from my receiver: 2 rec 12 yards

Gotta love fantasy football

Post by **bookworm** » Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:19 am

Week 4:

This was an absolutely dismal week; one of the worst I've ever had.

Even with one of Monty's players having zero and another a whopping negative five the matchup was nowhere close to competitive. I had complete duds nearly across the whole lineup.

In my defense though, let's look at the scores I'm basing my lineup decisions on:
WR1 - previous three weeks: 10, 10, 11, this week: 3
WR2 - previous three weeks: 14, 15, 26, this week: 1
And K - previous three weeks: 11, 17, 13, this week: 1
What even happened here?? There's no way I could have seen any of those disastrous scores coming, let alone to all happen suddenly in the same week! Just bizarre bad luck.

Also my usual D/ST got -6 this week so I made the right call to switch them out; but the group I picked to swap in got -3 despite being a recommendation to 'start with confidence' in yet another bizarre prediction-defying failure this week.

Week 5:

Unbelievable comeback victory this week!

Almozno's team had an incredible showing, solid scores from every single position that would secure you a win more often than not any given week. And indeed, with only the Monday game left and one player yet to go for me the projection had the week firmly out of reach. Even if my last guy hit his expected score - even if he exceeded it by a fair amount - there wasn't reasonable hope of making up the gap. And as the game played out that expectation became even more solidified as my player didn't have a single catch in the first half. But then, in the third quarter he finally connected, and after that he absolutely exploded, recording my second highest score in the week and launching me to one of the most improbable wins I've ever had! It took the game going to overtime, and thank goodness it did as that was when he got the touchdown that gave me just enough points to snatch the victory.

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:37 pm

This is shaping up to be an awesome year. Everyone is within two games of each other after Week 7.

(Icing on the cake: I'm on top.)

Post by **bookworm** » Tue Nov 09, 2021 1:05 pm

Week 6:

Ended up taking this week fairly comfortably, but it feels like I escaped with the win.

I had multiple positions put up dismally low scores this week, but the ones that did show up had strong enough days to hold up overall.

Week 7:

I cannot believe I actually scrapped this one out!

I had this anticipated as a likely loss before anything even happened, because so many of my key players were all on bye this week. But I ended up securing backups that I felt pretty good about so I thought okay let's see what happens here.

In the end I actually put up a really solid score considering the circumstances, I was very pleased even though I was probably going to still lose as expected. My scores were all in, KF had one more to play on Monday night and he was only behind by one point.

In an interesting bit of extra drama, that one player KF had left was Tyler Lockett who I had just dropped this week and he picked up. Had I done myself in by giving KF the piece that was going to beat me? I held the slightest optimism that I may actually be able to somehow hold onto this lead since the reason I finally let Lockett go was a streak of frustratingly low scores (3, 2, 5, 3) after starting the season on fire (22, 23) so it was just within the realm of possibility if he continued to post a dud here I kept the lead, but extremely unlikely as even at his worst so far he still scored enough to get this two point swing KF needed. But you never know.

So I wasn't holding my breath, but I was watching intently. I was either going to be beaten by the player I just moved on from, or my decision to finally drop him was going to be proven right in the most spectacular way possible.

He ended up scoring only a single point and tying our matchup at 85!!

The faintest of hope was still alive! Surely I couldn't actually pull off this incredibly improbable win though; remember the circumstances that put this week's contest in this position to begin with. Over half of my bench was on bye, and an additional player ended up being out for his game. I had a grand total of two scores to put toward the tiebreaker. But when I checked them, they were really good scores! Now I did hold my breath, and checked KF's bench. With low scores offset by a negative, he had a total of zero!

This is my second amazingly improbable win this season, and quite possibly the single craziest one ever!

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:56 pm

Nicely said, bookworm. $\:D/$

Also, Laura, last week was a heck of a matchup. 8 point difference. I logged into ESPN at like 12:45pm EST to do a last minute check of my lineup. Good thing I did, too, because my QB was suddenly listed as 'Out.' I took a chance on Cam Newton out of free agency because I'd heard he might be starting. Lucky me!

Laura Ingalls · Post by **Laura Ingalls** » Thu Nov 25, 2021 8:40 pm

I know, so close!
I am having a terrible season this year. Oh well.

Post by **bookworm** » Mon Dec 13, 2021 1:02 pm

Week 8:

This was a really good week.

Had a couple duds in my lineup, but they were more than covered for by big games from the rest of the positions. Couple that with Presler coming in a full 20 points under his projection and it was a very comfortable no suspense win.

Week 9:

Winning streak snapped.

This one was a disappointment. Victory was entirely within reach, all that prevented it was a fluke bad game from my QB. This inexplicable
performance stunned the real football world as much as the fantasy one, no one could have predicted it. Allen has been rock solid the entire year and he was playing the worst team in the league this week, how on earth does he record not only by far his lowest score of the season, but actually fail to reach double digits for the first time? Absolutely bizarre fluke of a game. Even with that happening our matchup ended up finishing really close; if Allen had just had anything remotely close to his usual performance, even if it was an uncharacteristically down day, I take the win. It had to be an all time dud coming out of nowhere to sink things, and that's what happened. It is what it is, on to next week.

Week 10:

I had no chance at this one.

Very minimal roster moves this week, I was feeling good about what I've put together. I had some really good scores, but multiple low ones as well, though one of those was due to the player leaving with an injury. It didn't matter at all what was going on with my team though, Eugene's lineup just absolutely went off this week and put the matchup firmly out of reach early.

There is one glaring failure in my box score, next to the defense. I made a switch this week because the recommendations had that unit as a play with strong confidence, while my usual defense said they had a really worrisome game and should be replaced if possible. Well the Browns performance turned out to be one of the single worst projection fails in fantasy history, and the Panthers unit scored 14 points! So the analysis was as wrong as you could possibly be, on both sides! I'm really glad our matchup ended up being so one sided that that move didn't factor into the end result at all; if that swap had cost me a win I would be pretty livid. Over the years I've learned to not put a major amount of stock in the weekly projections, but for both of these to be so completely wrong in completely opposite ways is ridiculous.

And by projection here I'm referring purely to the notes on who is in position to have a good game or trending toward a setback. I never put any stock whatsoever in the projected scores, you can't predict those with any reliable accuracy at all. This week is a perfect example of that, beyond the debacle with my defenses. Going in I'm projected to win our matchup comfortably by 12 points. Eugene outscores his projection by 16 while I miss mine by a whopping 35. I end up losing by 39, a 27 point swing from what was predicted! Granted one of my low scores was due to an injury which couldn't be anticipated, but even allowing for that their projected scores were majorly off up and down both our lineups.

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:19 pm

This year continues to be entertaining!

Laura, your team roared back with a vengeance.

Post by **bookworm** » Tue Dec 21, 2021 8:05 pm

Week 11:

Good bounce back week.

Had an absolute disaster game from my super reliable kicker out of nowhere this week which is concerning, but solid scores across the rest of my lineup prevented the overall result from being in danger.

Week 12:

I was surprised to get this win.

I had four players active on Thanksgiving so I got an early feel for what my score was looking like it would be, and it wasn't looking good. My player in each of the first two games left with injuries before doing anything. The other two were in the last game and both had really good games, but they were expected to have good games so even though they put up big numbers they were only a combined 5 points over the projection so with the two early exits Thursday ended with me in a hole. I didn't have good scores from most of the rest of my lineup when they played either, but I had one huge one and Almanzo had a rough week at a lot of positions so I did enough to get the win.

Week 13:

I got absolutely crushed this week!

Not really anything specific to say about it, there weren't any notable storylines around how it went down. I had a decent week, Laura had a fantastic one, that's all there was too it. It's disappointing to take a loss when you go into the week projected to win by more than 10 as that's a full position's worth of scoring to work with in how things play out, but there's nothing you can do when your opponent has multiple players go off for 20+ points.

Week 14:

Yet another projected 10+ victory that I end up losing.

I had monster scores from my QB and RB, but that wasn't enough to hold onto the lead. It has been entirely impossible to secure any kind of momentum at all this season. I can't remember the last time we've had such a prolonged stretch of weeks where every given matchup seemed like a complete tossup as to who would end up winning. My last five losses I had been projected to win the matchup, and not by small margins: by 15, 12, 12, 13, and 12! There is no confidence in anything this season; I put together the best lineup I can, one that all signs indicate should do great, but then watch as who knows what actually happens week to week. It's incredible.

Knight Fisher · Post by **Knight Fisher** » Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:45 pm

I came here expecting to write that the playoff slots were wrapped up. But hey Jalen Hurts pulled it out for me so we have one more week of drama. $\:D/$

3 of the 4 slots are going to Staleys, Pack is Back and the American Eagles

The final slot will come down to the currently 7-8 Bench Coolers and bookworms. The season series is tied 1-1. BC hold a substantial points total lead for the second tiebreaker. So:

BC gets the slot in every permutation except BC loses, bookworm wins. In which case bookworm gets the 4th slot.

It's been a fun season. Good luck in your postseason matches everyone $\:D/$

American Eagle · Post by **American Eagle** » Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:49 pm

It has been! Lots of excitement. $\:D/$ Thanks for the updates, bookworm and KF.

Post by **bookworm** » Wed Dec 22, 2021 11:49 am

Thanks for the breakdown KF, I thought I needed to win both of the last two weeks so I thought it was over for me after yesterday.

The Town of Odyssey

ToO Fantasy Football: 2021 League Thread

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